Thursday, 9 February 2017

Helping US Intelligence Analysts using Bayesian networks


Causal Bayesian networks are at the heart of a major new collaborative research project led by Australian University Monash  - funded by the United States' Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). The objective is to help intelligence analysts assess the value of their information. IARPA was set up following the failure of the US intelligence agencies to properly assess the correct levels of threat posed by Al Qaeda in 2001 and Iraq in 2003.

The chief investigator at Monash, Kevin Korb, said in an interview in the Australian:
"..quantitative rather than qualitative methods were crucial in judging the value of intelligence.... more quantitative approaches could have helped contain the ebola epidemic by making authorities appreciate the scale of the problem months earlier. They could also build a better assessment of the likelihood of events like gunfire between vessels in the South China Sea, a substantial devaluation of the Venezuelan currency or a new presidential aspirant in Egypt."
Norman Fenton and Martin Neil (both of Agena and Queen Mary University of London) will be working on the project along with colleagues such as David Lagnado and Ulrike Hahn at UCL.  AgenaRisk will be used throughout the project as the Bayesian network platform.

Further information:

16 comments:

  1. Readers,be careful here nobody can help you here or even suggest how you can get your ex or love back,most testimonies of most spell casters here must be ignored.because most of them are scam i mean real scam which i was a victim and i got ripped of thousands of dollars because i was so anxious to get my lover back after she left me for over 2 years and 7 months with my 6 years old daughter,i have applied to more than 10 different spell casters here and all to no avail they all ask for same thing send your name your ex,address,picture phone number etc which i did over and over again and most of them were from west Africa until i saw a post about GREAT DR KEN and i decided to gave him my last trail.he ask me for 4 things which are my real name,my ex and my ex mother name and $150 and said my ex will come back in 3days, i have paid over $3500 on spell casting and nothing have work for me after 3days i was thinking about how much i have lost so far so i said let me give him a try so i called him again and send my real name,my ex and my ex mother name and the $150 because i swear it was my last try so i was waiting as he told me to wait till the next 3 days and i could not sleep those night because i really love my wife and want her back at 9pm the third day i saw my wife online on facebook and she said hi at first i was shocked because she never talked with me for the past 2years and 7 month now i did not reply again she said are you there? i quickly reply yes and she said can we see tomorrow i said yes and she went off-line i was confused i try to chat her up again but she was no more online i could not sleep that night as i was wondering what she is going to say, by 7.am the next morning she gave me a miss call i decided not to call back as i was still in shock again she called and i pick she said can we see after work today i said yes so she ended the call immediately i got off work he called me and we met and all she deed was to beg me to take her and our daughter back.I had no choice than to take her back because i love her so much and now we are back again i called THE GREAT DR KEN that same day to thank him for what he has done infact i still call him and thank him as my life was not complete without my wife please be careful here i have been scammed thousands of dollars if you want a true love spell then contact GREAT DR KEN on his email address greatdrkenspelltemple@gmail.com or whatsapp him via his phone number +2348104557346.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Straight away after Dr.UGO ANDREW of generalspelltemple@gmail.com cast the Lottery spell for me, I felt enveloped by the control of the spell. This spell change my life into riches. I am now out of debts and experiencing the most amazing good luck with lottery after i won a huge amount of money. I have more luck now than I ever had in my life. i won 2.300.000 million pounds. Your Lottery spell made wonders, I can't believe it. Thank you so much sir for dedicating your time to cast the Lottery spell for me.”I am eternally grateful for the lottery spell DR. UGO ANDREW did for me. You can email him for you own lottery number. generalspelltemple@gmail.com or his via his Facebook Name: @generalspelltemple
      his whatsapp number is +1 (518)855-837

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    2. HOW I GOT MY MAN BACK
      i just want to start this way by giving a huge thanks to this man DR. UGO ANDREW for what he has just done in my life and my family . At first i thought it won,t work because many has failed me before but on a second thought i said let me just try and to my best surprise Harris my husband that said and insist he has nothing to do with me and my family again called me immediately this great man DR. UGO ANDREW of generalspelltemple@gmail.com cast a love spell on him and started begging for forgiveness. Well i love him so much and at once i accepted him back and today we are both living in pace and harmony, all the glory is to this man DR. UGO ANDREW of generalspelltemple@gmail.com DOC I THANK YOU once again for you are worthy of all the praise and thanks. forever am grateful and shall ever be to you . i also want to say if you are out there passing through any relationship issues you can contact him today and i strongly believe he will also help you out. once again you can contact him through the following way

      Email Address: generalspelltemple@gmail.com

      WhatsApp Number: +1 (518)855-8371



      HOW I GOT MY MAN BACK
      i just want to start this way by giving a huge thanks to this man DR. UGO ANDREW for what he has just done in my life and my family . At first i thought it won,t work because many has failed me before but on a second thought i said let me just try and to my best surprise Harris my husband that said and insist he has nothing to do with me and my family again called me immediately this great man DR. UGO ANDREW of generalspelltemple@gmail.com cast a love spell on him and started begging for forgiveness. Well i love him so much and at once i accepted him back and today we are both living in pace and harmony, all the glory is to this man DR. UGO ANDREW of generalspelltemple@gmail.com DOC I THANK YOU once again for you are worthy of all the praise and thanks. forever am grateful and shall ever be to you . i also want to say if you are out there passing through any relationship issues you can contact him today and i strongly believe he will also help you out. once again you can contact him through the following way

      Email Address: generalspelltemple@gmail.com

      WhatsApp Number: +1 (518)855-8371

      Delete
    3. I want to use this great opportunity to thank Dr. Akereco for helping me to get my boyfriend back after 1 year of breakup. My boyfriend breakup with me because he see another girl at his working place and told me he is no longer interested in me and live me pain and heart break.I seek for help on the internet and i saw so many good talk about this great spell caster Dr. Akereco of drakerecospellcaster@gmail.com and i contacted him also and explain my problems to him and he cast a love spell for me which i use to get back my boyfriend within the period of 3 days and i am so grateful to him for the good work he did for me,that is why i also want to let everyone who is in need of help out there to also seek help from him so he can help.His email
      drakerecospellcaster@gmail.com Whats-app number+2349064026626 or for USA call +1 (650) 334-3969 you can contact for any kind of help and he will help you. Jane from Switzerland

      Delete
    4. I made a promise to tell my testimony all over the globe once my man come back to me and my husband came just as Great Mother told me when she helped me. I made the right choice to have contacted Great Mother the great spell caster who is capable of helping you solve your problems. My man left me to suffer and i never believed that he will come back to me again but when i contacted Great Mother she assured me that my man will come again. She gave me some list of items to buy but i could not get them in my country and so i sent her the money and she bought the items and prepared the perfect love spell. My husband ran back to me in 3 days time begging for forgiveness THIS IS SO REAL AND GENUINE. NO SCAMS. I was so surprise that the spell worked just as she told me. This is so amazing and i want you to believe because Great Mother is so real and i urge you contact her now on her email so that she can also help you the way she helped me. Her email is Greatmotherofsolutiontemple@yahoo.com and you can also contact her with her phone number on whats app +2348078359876 you can also check and contact her on
      Greatmotherofpowers.blogspot.com
      Greatmotherofsolution.blogspot.com

      I made a promise to tell my testimony all over the globe once my man come back to me and my husband came just as Great Mother told me when she helped me. I made the right choice to have contacted Great Mother the great spell caster who is capable of helping you solve your problems. My man left me to suffer and i never believed that he will come back to me again but when i contacted Great Mother she assured me that my man will come again. She gave me some list of items to buy but i could not get them in my country and so i sent her the money and she bought the items and prepared the perfect love spell. My husband ran back to me in 3 days time begging for forgiveness THIS IS SO REAL AND GENUINE. NO SCAMS. I was so surprise that the spell worked just as she told me. This is so amazing and i want you to believe because Great Mother is so real and i urge you contact her now on her email so that she can also help you the way she helped me. Her email is Greatmotherofsolutiontemple@yahoo.com and you can also contact her with her phone number on whats app +2348078359876 you can also check and contact her on
      Greatmotherofpowers.blogspot.com
      Greatmotherofsolution.blogspot.com

      Delete
  2. Contact the best black magic voodoo spells caster in the world today if you need any of the following listed below: Is it Death Spells, Revenge Spells, Voodoo Spells, Love Spells, Money Spells, Protection Spells, Pregnancy Spells, Win Court Case Spells, File/Stop Divorce Spells, Death Spells That Work Over night, Love Spells To Get Back With Ex Husband, Wife, Boyfriend, Girlfriend? Contact great Dr OZAMO Spells Caster today and you will be happy you contacted him after casting the ritual.

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    ReplyDelete
  3. HOW I GOT MY MAN BACK
    i just want to start this way by giving a huge thanks to this man DR. UGO ANDREW for what he has just done in my life and my family . At first i thought it won,t work because many has failed me before but on a second thought i said let me just try and to my best surprise Harris my husband that said and insist he has nothing to do with me and my family again called me immediately this great man DR. UGO ANDREW of generalspelltemple@gmail.com cast a love spell on him and started begging for forgiveness. Well i love him so much and at once i accepted him back and today we are both living in pace and harmony, all the glory is to this man DR. UGO ANDREW of generalspelltemple@gmail.com DOC I THANK YOU once again for you are worthy of all the praise and thanks. forever am grateful and shall ever be to you . i also want to say if you are out there passing through any relationship issues you can contact him today and i strongly believe he will also help you out. once again you can contact him through the following way

    Email Address: generalspelltemple@gmail.com

    WhatsApp Number: +1 (518)855-8371



    HOW I GOT MY MAN BACK
    i just want to start this way by giving a huge thanks to this man DR. UGO ANDREW for what he has just done in my life and my family . At first i thought it won,t work because many has failed me before but on a second thought i said let me just try and to my best surprise Harris my husband that said and insist he has nothing to do with me and my family again called me immediately this great man DR. UGO ANDREW of generalspelltemple@gmail.com cast a love spell on him and started begging for forgiveness. Well i love him so much and at once i accepted him back and today we are both living in pace and harmony, all the glory is to this man DR. UGO ANDREW of generalspelltemple@gmail.com DOC I THANK YOU once again for you are worthy of all the praise and thanks. forever am grateful and shall ever be to you . i also want to say if you are out there passing through any relationship issues you can contact him today and i strongly believe he will also help you out. once again you can contact him through the following way

    Email Address: generalspelltemple@gmail.com

    WhatsApp Number: +1 (518)855-8371

    ReplyDelete
  4. I want to give my thanks to Jai Mata Osa Sunlight.” A week ago I saw someone post that is 95% close to the problems I am facing in my marriage. My husband is a drunk and a womanizer every time he goes out only to come back home drunk. 3weeks ago, I wanted to pack his close to the laundry machine for wash and a pack of condom fell off from his pocket. I was accusing him of cheating on me and yet he kept denying until I show him his condom and that was when he admitted. And still yet, he go to work and come back home drunk. I have been looking for a way and some of my friends said to me to divorce him. But, who is the wise woman that will divorce her husband after 35yrs of marriage?? Am I going to divorce and start looking for a husband again? Or I should just stay because my children?? I kept asking myself these questions. I love him so much only after he is drunk, he does foolish that could make me hate him for the rest of my life but still, I love him. This last week, I saw Aisha comments about how jai mata osa sunlight restore her broken relationship. I was so much interested and I contacted her for help. and I told her all of my problems.she then reply me back and asked of his name, and she told me some necessary things I need to do. But I asked her a question…that how am I to know if he no longer cheat on me? And she told me that I will be convince through his drinking habits. And that prove everything I needed to be satisfied with. And indeed, gave me much evidence to believe her spell if it’s works. Then I provided all what she requested and she castes a spell on him, and she told me to shower but not use soap or sponge and make love to him. I did all as she instructed. To my greatest happiness now is, ever since I use the charms of maa sunlight on him, my husband is completely changed.he’s been acting so lovely..so nicely to me and I don’t this to end. He no longer drink I don’t how she manage to do that though as I am still so very surprise for such a great and miraculous powers bestow upon a woman to help others and save them from their sorrows. Last night, I asked him..baby, do you still value her more than me?? He said what are you talking about? I said don’t you pretend you don’t know what I am talking about. And then he said, I swear to god and to my late father’s grave I love no other woman but you and I don’t go to club again to drink. And I have no longer be cheating you again. I don’t know how I stopped it though… the feelings and the interest just left me and now I hate going to clubs. is not just in me again as something was fighting since the past days and was bothering in my mind about much I’ve been hurting you. And then, he started begging me again for forgiveness. He was saying so much lovely words to me just as he use to say to me when he was yet chasing me for his wife to be. I am soo lucky to have meet up to such a true and genuine priestess without been lied to. Without been deceived. I am indeed grateful and I am not to to be stingy though so I will link her email just in-case any readers of this comment got interested and have a problem he/she needs a solution to. There is no doubt to her service speaking to her alone, you will feel her presence fully in you. Pls email Sunlightmata@gmail.com with your problems and follow her instructions and guardians and I assure you, your testimonies will be next

    ReplyDelete
  5. HOW TO GET YOUR EX BACK WITHOUT PANIC
    I Am Hair From North Carolina. i want to testify about powerful Dr Azuka for saving my Relationship.I must be one of the few who don’t have a trouble showing and telling someone how grateful I am for making my Relationship a melodious and smooth Relationship. I have been trying to be more positive about my relationship with my boyfriend, it seems like it has taken forever. Another lady took my Fiancee away from me and they both relocated. i cried and searched for him to come back but he refused to take my calls nor return my messages. My friend introduced me to a powerful spell caster called Dr Azuka who helped me cast a very powerful love spell that brought back my Fiancee in 48 hours. i was amazed and surprised when my fiancee called to beg me for forgiveness all because of the powerful love spell of Dr Azuka. Don"t fail to Contact Dr Azuka through the following means if You Have Any Marital Or Relationship Problem. His Contact Information Are

    Email: greatazukaspellcast@yahoo.com

    ReplyDelete
  6. I was Looking for a way to Stop My Divorce and Save My Marriage, so I requested the service Dr,Azuka last week. Well, happily I can say today I am living a happy married life and also my marriage life is restored. Dr. Azuka Saved My Marriage. my husband is now loving me like crazy and I’m loving it! We are now trying to get some little ones to our family to show our never ending love for each other. Dr, Azuka have done wonders in my life. if you are searching for way to restore relationship, i will advise you to contact him now.((( Greatazukaspellcast@yahoo.com )))

    ReplyDelete
  7. greetings to everyone who maybe reading this post aim Debby Lynn from Cincinnati Ohio USA i am here to share my joy online because i am over excited about the good work lord ozamo has done for me am 32 years old a banker at the citi bank with 3 kids i am married to dean Damian Lynn aged 43 a marine officer 5 months ago my husband and i were facing the hardest situation of our marital life since were got married first an allegation was been laid at the bank that i was into dubious activities and after a while i was sacked i became jobless after 2 weeks my husband was adopted by unknown gun men at the garden on Sunday evening with the 3 kids when i heard the new i collapsed after which i was rushed to the hospital then a friend of mine introduced me to lord ozamo the great spell caster i told him what i was going through he helped me with his spiritual powers and my family were freed without any ransom i also got a letter from the bank that the allegation was false and i was compensated with $58 thousand usd and a brand new car thanks to lord ozamo for this great joy he restored back to my family he is also a spiritual specialist in the following
    love spell
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    money spell
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    beauty spell and many more contact him on lordozamotemple@gmail.com
    contact him on Facebook Ozamo Temple
    Results are 100% sure and guaranteed

    ReplyDelete
  8. I want to use this great opportunity to thank Dr. Akereco for helping me to get my boyfriend back after 1 year of breakup. My boyfriend breakup with me because he see another girl at his working place and told me he is no longer interested in me and live me pain and heart break.I seek for help on the internet and i saw so many good talk about this great spell caster Dr. Akereco of drakerecospellcaster@gmail.com and i contacted him also and explain my problems to him and he cast a love spell for me which i use to get back my boyfriend within the period of 3 days and i am so grateful to him for the good work he did for me,that is why i also want to let everyone who is in need of help out there to also seek help from him so he can help.His email
    drakerecospellcaster@gmail.com Whats-app number+2349064026626 or for USA call +1 (650) 334-3969 you can contact for any kind of help and he will help you. Jane from Switzerland

    ReplyDelete
  9. My name is Veronica Smith. I am so exited to share my testimony that this great spellcaster has done for me. With all due respect I want to thank DR AMIDU for bringing joy and happiness to my relationship and my family. I want to tell the world out there that this spell caster that is real and genuine. I never believed in any of these things until my husband left me and my child for two years , I required help until I found doctoramiduspellhome@gmail.com a great spellcaster, And he cast a spell for me, and he assured me that I will get my husband back in seven days after the spell has been cast.Three days later, i got a mail from my husband and he also called me for the first time in two years, and made an apology to me for the heart break, and told me that he is ready to love me and spend the rest of his life with me. DRAMIDU released him up to know how much I loved and wanted him. And opened his eyes to picture how much we have share together. As I’m writing this testimony right now I’m the most happiest woman on earth.I and my husband are living a happy life and our love is now stronger than how it was even before he left me. So that’s why I promised to share my testimony all over the world.All thanks goes to DR AMIDU for the great work that he has done for me. Below is the email address in case you are undergoing a heart break and any other situation, and I assure you that as he has done mine, he will definitely help you too.

    Email: doctoramiduspellhome@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  10. Amazing love spell that work fast. My husband is the love of my life and I’ve always been attracted to him. We’ll be married 17 years this August. Recently I found out he was having an affair with another woman for about a few months. I was devastated. I honestly didn’t think he was capable of that. At first when i confronted him he was sorry and said he still loved me and wanted to work things out. That they were just friends messing around but he’ll stop. I found it strange though that he wouldn’t cut him off even after I asked him to. Eventually I caught him again messaging each other and he basically made up his mind that he’s not happy in our marriage and wants to be with his girlfriend. I was crushed… I hope I’ll get over this. The pain really really sucks like a part of you is lost. It’s the whole “I love you but not in love with you thing”. I’m pretty sure he’s gonna want a divorce soon. We also have 2 kids and it’s tearing them apart:i have been crying all my life hoping my husband could change for good i love and adore my husband coz he mean the whole world to me, i have ask for help from different places but all they do is take my money with out any good result i was so frustrated that i was about to give up on him and fight to accept that he is gone forever. one very good morning i was chatting with a friend of my on facebook there i come across this amazing and wonderful testimony on how a lady got her ex back save her marriage with the help of love spell, generated and cast by Dr Kumar i was so very happy to see the good work of this spell caster so i directly and urgently email him, do all he ask of me and today by his power i can testify that my husband is back home again with out signing the divorce paper any more he really show me that there is a second chance in life am so very happy to have my husband back if you have any similar problem as my, fine it difficult to get pregnant, get your ex back and fix your broken marriage contact him for more details email.....kumarkomartemple@yahoo.com or WhatsApp +234785067098.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I made a promise to tell my testimony all over the globe once my man come back to me and my husband came just as Great Mother told me when she helped me. I made the right choice to have contacted Great Mother the great spell caster who is capable of helping you solve your problems. My man left me to suffer and i never believed that he will come back to me again but when i contacted Great Mother she assured me that my man will come again. She gave me some list of items to buy but i could not get them in my country and so i sent her the money and she bought the items and prepared the perfect love spell. My husband ran back to me in 3 days time begging for forgiveness THIS IS SO REAL AND GENUINE. NO SCAMS. I was so surprise that the spell worked just as she told me. This is so amazing and i want you to believe because Great Mother is so real and i urge you contact her now on her email so that she can also help you the way she helped me. Her email is Greatmotherofsolutiontemple@yahoo.com and you can also contact her with her phone number on whats app +2348078359876 you can also check and contact her on
    Greatmotherofpowers.blogspot.com
    Greatmotherofsolution.blogspot.com

    I made a promise to tell my testimony all over the globe once my man come back to me and my husband came just as Great Mother told me when she helped me. I made the right choice to have contacted Great Mother the great spell caster who is capable of helping you solve your problems. My man left me to suffer and i never believed that he will come back to me again but when i contacted Great Mother she assured me that my man will come again. She gave me some list of items to buy but i could not get them in my country and so i sent her the money and she bought the items and prepared the perfect love spell. My husband ran back to me in 3 days time begging for forgiveness THIS IS SO REAL AND GENUINE. NO SCAMS. I was so surprise that the spell worked just as she told me. This is so amazing and i want you to believe because Great Mother is so real and i urge you contact her now on her email so that she can also help you the way she helped me. Her email is Greatmotherofsolutiontemple@yahoo.com and you can also contact her with her phone number on whats app +2348078359876 you can also check and contact her on
    Greatmotherofpowers.blogspot.com
    Greatmotherofsolution.blogspot.com

    I made a promise to tell my testimony all over the globe once my man come back to me and my husband came just as Great Mother told me when she helped me. I made the right choice to have contacted Great Mother the great spell caster who is capable of helping you solve your problems. My man left me to suffer and i never believed that he will come back to me again but when i contacted Great Mother she assured me that my man will come again. She gave me some list of items to buy but i could not get them in my country and so i sent her the money and she bought the items and prepared the perfect love spell. My husband ran back to me in 3 days time begging for forgiveness THIS IS SO REAL AND GENUINE. NO SCAMS. I was so surprise that the spell worked just as she told me. This is so amazing and i want you to believe because Great Mother is so real and i urge you contact her now on her email so that she can also help you the way she helped me. Her email is Greatmotherofsolutiontemple@yahoo.com and you can also contact her with her phone number on whats app +2348078359876 you can also check and contact her on
    Greatmotherofpowers.blogspot.com
    Greatmotherofsolution.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  12. My world was falling apart. My mind, for some reason, wont let go of the memory of My Wife. I had a very big problem with my wife few months ago, that lead to her leaving me. All efforts to get her back proved abortive. one day while going through the internet i saw so many testimony of this great man called Dr.Goodluck and how he helped people with all kinds of problem, his advert was everywhere,. Although I never believed in spell casting, but I had no choice than to give him a try so i contacted Him, I was so desperate to have my wife back with me once again. So I did all he told me to do. He told me that my wife will come back to me in the next 17hours after the spell is completed. I was skeptical. He casted the spell for me and i was so anxious waiting to see or hear from her, it was just 14hours after the spell was done my wife called and said she was coming HOME and she was asking for forgiveness for her ever hurting me before…..It was a dream come through for me!!! that was how my family and relationship was save and our relationship is now stronger than ever.my advice to you out there facing same problem or even worst then mine cry no more and contact this great man called Dr Goodluck He is capable of handling any kind of problem.
    Contact him with his Email him at: goodluck05spellcaster@gmail.com
    Call or Whats-app him: +2348138654465
    website http://drgoodluck.simplesite.com or http://lovespelltogetyourexback.weebly.com

    ReplyDelete