Monday, 6 March 2017

Explaining and predicting football team performance over an entire season


When I was presenting the BBC documentary Climate Changes by Numbers and had to explain the idea of a statistical 'attribution study', I used the analogy of determining which factors most affected the performance of Premiership football teams year on year. Because I had to do it in a hurry I and my colleague Dr Anthony Constantinou did a very crude analysis which focused on a very small number of factors and showed, unsurprisingly, that turnover (i.e. mainly spend on transfer and wages) had the most impact of these. 

We weren't happy with the quality of the study and decided to undertake a much more comprehensive analysis as part of the BAYES-KNOWLEDGE project. This project is all about improved decision-making and risk assessment using a probabilistic technique called Bayesian Networks. In particular, the main objective of the project is to produce useful/accurate predictions and assessments in situations where there is not a lot of data available. In such situations the current fad of 'big data' methods using machine learning techniques do not work; instead we use 'smart-data' -  a method that combines the limited data available with expert causal knowledge and real-world ‘facts’. The idea of predicting Premiership teams' long term performance and identifying the key factors explaining changes was a perfect opportunity to both develop and validate the BAYES-KNOWLEDGE method, especially as we had previously done extensive work in predicting individual premiership match results (see links at bottom).

The results of the study have now been published in one of the premier international AI journals Knowledge Based Systems.

The Bayesian Network model in the paper enables us to predict, before a season starts, the total league points a team is expected to accumulate throughout the season (each team plays 38 games in a season with three points per win and one per draw). The model results compare very favourably against a number of other relevant and different types of models, including some which use far more data. As hoped for the results also provide a novel and comprehensive attribution study of the factors most affecting performance (measured in terms of impact on actual points gained/lost per season). For example, although unsurprisingly, the largest improvements in performance result from massive increases in spending on new players (an 8.49 points gain), an even greater decrease (up to 16.52 points) results from involvement in the European competitions (especially the Europa League) for teams that have previous little experience in such competitions. Also, something  that was very surprising and that possibly confounds bookies - and gives punters good potential for exploiting -  is that promoted teams generate (on average) a staggering increase in performance of 8.34 points, relative to the relegated team they are replacing. The results in the study also partly address/explain the widely accepted 'favourite-longshot bias' observed in bookies odds.

The full reference citation is:
Constantinou, A. C. and Fenton, N. (2017). Towards Smart-Data: Improving predictive accuracy in long-term football team performance. Knowledge-Based Systems, In Press, 2017, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2017.03.005
The pre-print version of the paper (pdf) can be found at http://constantinou.info/downloads/papers/smartDataFootball.pdf

We acknowledge the financial support by the European Research Council (ERC) for funding research project, ERC-2013-AdG339182-BAYES_KNOWLEDGE, and Agena Ltd for software support.

See also:

8 comments:

  1. All thanks to this great man called Dr Agbazara the great spell caster that bring back the joy in me by helping me to bring back my lover who break up with me Four months ago but now with me with the help of Dr Agbazara the great love spell caster. All thanks goes to him you can also contact him for help if you need him in times oof troubles via: ( agbazara@gmail.com ) you can also Whatsapp on this Number +2348104102662

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My names are Ashley Vivian, Am here to share a testimony on how Dr Raypower helped me. After 1/5 year relationship with my boyfriend, he changed suddenly and stopped contacting me regularly, he would come up with excuses of not seeing me all the time. He stopped answering my calls and my sms and he stopped seeing me regularly. I then started catching him with different girls several times but every time he would say that he love me and that he needed some time to think about our relationship. But cannot stop thinking about him so i decided to go online and i saw so many good talk about this spell caster called Dr Raypower and i contact him and explain my problems to him. He cast a love spell for me which i use and after 24 hours, my boyfriend came back to me and started contacting me regularly and we moved in together after a few months and he was more open to me than before and he started spending more time with me than his friends. We eventually got married and we now have been married happily for 3 years with a son. Ever since Dr Raypower helped me, my partner is very stable, faithful and closer to me than before.You can also contact this spell caster and get your relationship fix Email: Urgentspellcast@gmail.com






      My names are Ashley Vivian, Am here to share a testimony on how Dr Raypower helped me. After 1/5 year relationship with my boyfriend, he changed suddenly and stopped contacting me regularly, he would come up with excuses of not seeing me all the time. He stopped answering my calls and my sms and he stopped seeing me regularly. I then started catching him with different girls several times but every time he would say that he love me and that he needed some time to think about our relationship. But cannot stop thinking about him so i decided to go online and i saw so many good talk about this spell caster called Dr Raypower and i contact him and explain my problems to him. He cast a love spell for me which i use and after 24 hours, my boyfriend came back to me and started contacting me regularly and we moved in together after a few months and he was more open to me than before and he started spending more time with me than his friends. We eventually got married and we now have been married happily for 3 years with a son. Ever since Dr Raypower helped me, my partner is very stable, faithful and closer to me than before.You can also contact this spell caster and get your relationship fix Email: Urgentspellcast@gmail.com

      Delete

  2. Hey guys!

    Call Prophet Efe for urgent love spell +2347081602438 or email efepowerfultemple@gmail.com to get your ex partners back.
    I'm so excited to share this testimony here about how i got my ex boyfriend back after a break up. I'm Jasmine 25 yr old from UK, my boyfriend of a 4yr just broke up with me and am 30 weeks pregnant.I have cried my self to sleep most of the nights and don’t seem to concentrate during lectures sometimes I stay awake almost all night thinking about him and start to cry all over again.Because of this I end up not having energy for my next day’s classes ,my attendance has dropped and am always in uni and on time.Generally he is a very nice guy ,he ended it because he said we were arguing a lot and not getting along.He is right we’ve been arguing during the pregnancy a lot .After the break up I kept ringing him and telling him I will change.I am in love with this guy and he is the best guy I have ever been with.I’m still hurt and in disbelief when he said he didn’t have any romantic feelings towards me anymore that hurt me faster than a lethal syringe.He texts me now and then mainly to check up on how am doing with the pregnancy,he is supportive with it but it’s not fair on me, him texting me as I just want to grieve the pain and not have any stress due to the pregnancy.i was really upset and i needed help, so i searched for help online and I came across a website that suggested that Prophet Efe can help solve marital problems, restore broken relationships and so on. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he told me what to do and i did it then he did a spell for me. 28 hours later, my bf came to me and apologized for the wrongs he did and promise never to do it again. Ever since then, everything has returned back to normal. I and my bf are living together happily again.. All thanks to Prophet Efe . If you need a spell caster that can cast a spell that truly works, I suggest you contact him. He will not disappoint you.This is his E-mail: efepowerfultemple@gmail.com
    or Add him up on Whats-app: +2347081602438,
    Jasmine
    thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  3. After being in relationship with markiss for seven years,he broke up with me, I did everything possible to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so much because of the love I have for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to someone online and she suggested that I should rather contact a spell caster that could help me cast a spell to bring him back but I am the type that never believed in spell, I had no choice than to try it, I mailed the spell caster, and he told me there was no problem that everything will be okay before three days, that my ex will return to me before three days, he cast the spell and surprisingly in the second day, it was around 4pm. My ex called me, I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that happened, that he wanted me to return to him, that he loves me so much. I was so happy and went to him, that was how we started living together happily again. Since then, I have made promise that anybody I know that have a relationship problem, I would be of help to such person by referring him or her to the only real and powerful spell caster who helped me with my own problem and who is different from all the fake ones out there. Anybody could need the help of the spell caster, his email: drosemudiamenspellhome@gmail.com you can email him if you need his assistance in your relationship or anything. I CAN NEVER STOP TALKING ABOUT HIM, HIS EMAIL ADDRESS IS: drosemudiamenspellhome@gmail.com CONTACT HIM NOW FOR SOLUTION TO ALL YOUR PROBLEM

    ReplyDelete
  4. My names are Ashley Vivian, Am here to share a testimony on how Dr Raypower helped me. After 1/5 year relationship with my boyfriend, he changed suddenly and stopped contacting me regularly, he would come up with excuses of not seeing me all the time. He stopped answering my calls and my sms and he stopped seeing me regularly. I then started catching him with different girls several times but every time he would say that he love me and that he needed some time to think about our relationship. But cannot stop thinking about him so i decided to go online and i saw so many good talk about this spell caster called Dr Raypower and i contact him and explain my problems to him. He cast a love spell for me which i use and after 24 hours, my boyfriend came back to me and started contacting me regularly and we moved in together after a few months and he was more open to me than before and he started spending more time with me than his friends. We eventually got married and we now have been married happily for 3 years with a son. Ever since Dr Raypower helped me, my partner is very stable, faithful and closer to me than before.You can also contact this spell caster and get your relationship fix Email: Urgentspellcast@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  5. After being in relationship with him for seven years,he broke up with me, I did everything possible to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so much because of the love I have for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to someone online and she suggested that I should rather contact a spell caster that could help me cast a spell to bring him back but I am the type that never believed in spell, I had no choice than to try it, I mailed the spell caster, and he told me there was no problem that everything will be okay before three days, that my ex will return to me before three days, he cast the spell and surprisingly in the second day, it was around 4pm. My ex called me, I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that happened, that he wanted me to return to him, that he loves me so much. I was so happy and went to him, that was how we started living together happily again. Since then, I have made promise that anybody I know that have a relationship problem, I would be of help to such person by referring him or her to the only real and powerful spell caster who helped me with my own problem and who is different from all the fake ones out there. Anybody could need the help of the spell caster, his email: drosedebamenspellhome@gmail.com you can email him if you need his assistance in your relationship or anything. CAN NEVER STOP TALKING ABOUT YOU SIR HIS EMAIL ADDRESS IS:drosedebamenspellhome@gmail.com CONTACT HIM NOW FOR SOLUTION TO ALL YOUR PROBLEM

    ReplyDelete
  6. My world was falling apart. My mind, for some reason, wont let go of the memory of My Wife. I had a very big problem with my wife few months ago, that lead to her leaving me. All efforts to get her back proved abortive. one day while going through the internet i saw so many testimony of this great man called Dr.Goodluck and how he helped people with all kinds of problem, his advert was everywhere,. Although I never believed in spell casting, but I had no choice than to give him a try so i contacted Him, I was so desperate to have my wife back with me once again. So I did all he told me to do. He told me that my wife will come back to me in the next 17hours after the spell is completed. I was skeptical. He casted the spell for me and i was so anxious waiting to see or hear from her, it was just 14hours after the spell was done my wife called and said she was coming HOME and she was asking for forgiveness for her ever hurting me before…..It was a dream come through for me!!! that was how my family and relationship was save and our relationship is now stronger than ever.my advice to you out there facing same problem or even worst then mine cry no more and contact this great man called Dr Goodluck He is capable of handling any kind of problem.
    Contact him with his Email him at: goodluck05spellcaster@gmail.com
    Call or Whats-app him: +2348138654465
    website http://drgoodluck.simplesite.com or http://lovespelltogetyourexback.weebly.com

    ReplyDelete
  7. Return Lost Love Spells That Really Work
    “LOVE, Happiness, Care is the key fo LIFE”. That was the word from Dr happy when I consulted his powerful Love Spell. I married the wrong man; I realized that after Three years of our unfruitful marriage. Everything was going from Best to Worst in our life, no child, I got demoted from work after our marriage, my husband was sacked a year after. His application for new job in various offices was constantly declined even though he was qualified enough. I was made to take care of my family with the low income I earn get that wasn’t enough to pay our rent. We keep praying a seeking for help from some people, my friends laugh at me behind because I was advised not to get married yet.It was one Thursday night that my husband woke me up and told me that has thought enough about our crisis, he said that our crisis is not ordinary and it’s beyond our spiritual level. He suggested we should consult Dr happy from testimonies he showed me online about how he has been helping families. I was afraid, I don’t like evil or spell but I supported him to contact him if he can help us. We consulted him via happylovespell2@gmail.com and he replied positively after 20munites with congratulating email that he can help us but he will need our pure heart and trusts in his work if he will cast the spell on us and purify our life. We agreed to his terms. He cast the spell and told us to expect results within 5days. I waited for three days nothing happened, so I started having doubt and blaming my husband for emailing Dr happy. It was on the fifth day that my husband was called for an interview and he got a well-paying work, I was prompted to a higher position. I missed my period on the 5th day and it was confirmed that I am with a baby. Things have really changed for us for good and we now have our own house and cars. I will never forget what Dr happy told us “LOVE is the key fo LIFE”, this word keep me going. People that laughed at us are coming close for help and I am delighted to welcome them because my family is now blessed. Dr happy is a savior and man that keep to his word even when I doubted his powers at the end of the spell. Thank to your Oracle for helping us plz contact him http://happyspelltemple.webs.com/ for more details email.....happylovespell2@gmail.com or add him on whats-app +234813387377

    ReplyDelete